Re: Just spoke to a Frist aide
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nate thanks for all the great updates. along with berge and mr.k you guys have done an unbelievable job keeping us up to date. with all the new information that has come out in the last 24 hours, i'm wondering what you think the current % chance of some online gambling law passes before the 109th congress adjourns. (i realize it may just be rank speculation or a guess, but it is a much more informed estimate than i could make.)
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I don't know. I think these estimates were much easier to make back when it was a game of holds and the amount of time left in the session. Now it all comes down to discussions in smoke-filled rooms, and it's much harder for an outsider to make an informed estimate.
The Tradesports contract last traded at 17.7%. There were times when I thought that contract was clearly too high or too low, and I don't think it's clearly too high or too low right now. I guess I'd feel more comfortable saying that the probability is somewhere between 5% and 35%, and that whether it edges toward the greater number or the lesser one is fairly strongly dependant on what happens in the midterms.
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