Sparty -24.5 v Illinois
Mich St -24.5 v Illinois
obviously, MSU is cash money. Illinois is teh suxxor, fade fade fade.
j/k
Last year, Sparty marched into Champaign and beat Illinois 61-14 on 48 carries for 376 yards and 26 of 34 passing for 329 yards with no turnovers.
Big deal, Illinois sucked last year, right? Well, they hadn't sucked before the MSU game.
Illinois fans and team were actually feeling pretty good about themselves. They had played 3 games previously. Week 1 was an amazing come from behind 33-30 victory verse Rutgers. Week 2 was an easy 40-19 win over San Jose State. Week 3 was Illinois' first loss, 35-20 at Cal, in a game where Illinois was leading at the half and where the final score didn't show how close the game really was.
Why did I go through all that? To show just how bad last year's Spartan team completely decimated a team that was feeling relatively good about itself in Champaign. The match-ups are just dreadful for the Illini. The thing about MSU is that their offense can and will score, score, score. It was 38-10 by halftime last year.
Unlike the boring, grind it out Hawkeye offense that didn't test the Illini deep once, MSU will go after them early and often. Illinois returns their whole secondary from last season, but freshman Vontae Davis replaced one of the startes at CB. CBs Davis and Ball have absolutely no field awareness. It's kind of funny to count the number of times they get completely turned around. I don't mean to be harsh, but I cannot count the number of times an opposing WR has had no one within 10 yards of him as he catches the deep ball. This will also be the fist time that Illinois' new outside linebackers will have to line up against spread, 4 WR sets by a BCS conference team. Don't expect them to keep up.
Then comes the running game. Well, it looks like Illinois, despite the run defense verse Iowa, is still pretty awful verse the run. After all, they allowed lowly Syracuse to smash them in the face and average over 4ypc. MSU's run attack looks very good. They replaced 3 OL from last year with very little protection or run block issues. The o-line averages well over 300 and will just flatten the Illini defense. I feel sorry for Illini DE Derek Walker as he, yet again, will be a lone soldier out there.
MSU put up gargantuan numbers on Pitt and ND. The Illini defense is nowhere near Pitt or ND. This is 40 points+ from Sparty, even with them pulling the foot off the accelerator.
NOw, we get to the other side of the ball where MSU hasn't looked that good. Hey, Illinois did put up 21 verse Syracuse and a score against Iowa. It's not even as good as it appears. Rutgers, in beating Illinois 33-0, did not allow the Illini to cross midfield once with the ball! That has to be some sort of record for futility. Against Syracuse, the game was 31-7 until Illinois got a few garbage scores against prevent defenses. Against Iowa, Juice started and, again, was able to get a garbage score once the game was 24-0. Frankly, I don't imagine Illinois getting more than one score with the game's outcome in question. Of course, I expect them to get another garbage TD that will add to the Juice highlight reel. The Illini o-line has been awful. Illinois actually has a pretty decent stable at RB, but they have achieved very little this year. Illinois is averaging just over 110 ypg verse 1A opponents on less than 3 ypc. The Illini QB's have been sacked 12 times in the 3 games verse 1A opponents. Illinois has been making multiple turnovers per game, which will likely continue with a Freshman QB and young receivers who aren't on the same page (Though Zook was smart enough to put the senior qb back in for one set of downs last week where he threw a pick on the second play---that was a sarcastic 'smart enough'). OK, so MSU's defense is no bread winner either, but they were able to hold Illinois to 2 scores and 271 yards last year. Where does MSU fall in the spectrum of Iowa, Rutgers, and Syracuse D? I suspect they aren't the worst of the lot. Expect the Illini to get 14 or so this game as well.
Special teams will continue to be disasterous for the Illini. They missed 2 FGs last week from between 40-45 (one with and one against the wind). For those counting, it's easy, Illinois has made 0 FGs so far this year. In addition, the Zooker insists on using WR DaJuan Warren (who's actually a very capable playmaker) as a punter. Illinois was still 0-0 with Iowa late into the 2nd quarter until Zook sent the WR out there for his 17 yard punt.
Basically, MSU can run and pass for whatever yardage they feel like. MSU has a vertically attacking offense (unlike Syracuse and Iowa). They get 40+. Illinois gets 2 scores (1 in garbage time). 24.5 seems too small. About 30 seems right to me.
Illinois is the suxxor, fade fade fade.
2-1 on Illini picks ytd
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