[kurto]

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No, youre talking about 16 spy agencies that dont necessarily have the types of people on board to predict what would have happened with alternative reactions to SH and the war on terror.

What we do know is that during the inaction of the prior years, they did a damn good job of recruiting and training terrorist world wide. To assume that the growth after the Iraq war would have been greater or less than absent the war is more speculation than science.

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I trust the speculation of 16 different spy agencies then a random person on a poker forum.

And to answer Sirio's question, I remember people speculating back before the invasion began about how we could breed more AntiAmericanism and terrorism by invading Iraq.