[Surf]

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So, theoretically, if everyone knows that this opponent is calling a river bet 100% of the time, players are only value betting aces or high pocket pairs. And this pattern in my experience has seemed to hold true almost invariably. When I'm the preflop capper in this situation, I'm almost always beat when I call, and when I'm ahead my opponent almost always checks.

So - shouldn't hands like 99-22 start folding rivers like this? I have done it against opponents I consider "predictable" or "straightforward." I guess it just depends on the stupidity factor - is the opponent "stupid" enough to make a completely "hopeless" river bluff? Of course, this line of thinking by tight TAGs coupled with the fact that you need to be successful 20% of the time to show a profit makes this hopeless river bluff - and the flop call to get the river - look a lot more reasonable than at first glance.

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Magi,

I think you are giving this tight/predictable player a bit too much credit for levels of thinking. He's not checking behind 99 and then facing a river bet, then thinking "i checked to save myself a bet, and he knows i checked to save myself a bet, so if he bets he's betting for value so i should fold." He's just thinking "yay i saved myself a bet, i hope he's bluffing missed spades or a lower underpair."

Also, I don't think a tight/predictable player caps below TT or 99 with any regularity, though you may have just been making that point for the sake of argument, which is probably accurate that against good players we should be folding some of the time since they expect us to call.

As played i'd fold the folp, and check the river, since I don't think villain's folding to our river bet very often, pretty much just the same % of times as he got way out of line with his PF cap.

Surf