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I'm still new to the game but I play to win money and don't put a lot of value in playing pots against many opponets just for the sake of the cards I hold. I've found it is much too easy to lose a lot of money in a marginal situation (all-in, before the flop, against 4 opponents, even if I'm the favorite) and then have to play a hundred hands to win back what I lost on my pocket AA than to just fold that one hand and take advantage of the next ten hands where I can see a couple of flops for a reasonable investment and continue adding dollars to my stake. How wrong am I? I'm talking about NL ring games, not tourneys. I think there is a time and a place to push any hand including AA, and maybe a time not to push.
[/ QUOTE ] Can someone tell me my rough EV if I go all-in on the button in the above situation over 1,000,000 hands? Say my opponents have KQs, KK, J10s, 76s (very loose 1/2 NL game) as an example.
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twodimes is your friend:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1491405
pokenum -h ac as - kc ks - kd qd - jh th - 7c 6c
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 366022 43.03 483796 56.87 850 0.10 0.430
Ks Kc 56229 6.61 790166 92.89 4273 0.50 0.068
Kd Qd 104399 12.27 741996 87.23 4273 0.50 0.125
Jh Th 160733 18.89 689085 81.01 850 0.10 0.189
7c 6c 159012 18.69 690806 81.21 850 0.10 0.187
Your shortstack requirement needlessly complicates things (you don't specify which hands are the shortstack), so we'll assume everyone has the same stack size of $100.
With 43% equity in a 5-way pot, you will lose $100 net 57% of the time, but win $400 net 43% of the time (this ignores the .1% you split the pot). Per hand:
(.43 * 400) + (.57 * -100) = 172 + -57 = 115.
On average, you lose out on $115 (!!!) dollars in profit each time you fold in this situation. Over a million hands, that is 115 million dollars. That's right, 115 million dollars. Even though you win the showdown only 43% of the time, the payoff is so big when you do hit that it should be obvious that folding is about the worst thing you can possibly do.