[BenA]

You all make very good points. And I should point out that sometimes in this forum, I forget that we are talking about ALL poker games and revert to my area of experise... which is limit. In NL, I can see how bet sizing would give you a profit even without ever having to see a showdown (which of course, you could never, ever win).

But for LIMIT hold'em, I stand by my original assumption. Even knowing all your opponents cards, which are dead, who has a chance to draw, etc... in this scenario you rely entirely on folding everyone out before a showdown. Even if no one ever picks up on how crappy your starting cards seem to always be, I do not think, even in the weakest/tighest of games, that you could realize a profit.

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bena, post some hands that illustarte how we might lose a decent sized pot, without the opponnet getting completely lucky.

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My pleasure. First of all, I'd like to talk about a 'decent sized pot.' This type of pot means that people often play correctly against your bets, even if they don't know it. This is the most dangerous type of pot for your hand, because even when you have a huge fold equity on the turn or river, they are gonna either call to hit something or even occasionally call your river bet with bottom pair or A-high. Since you can never beat these hands, the juicier the pot, the smaller your fold equity. You may argue that the bigger the pot, the less correct your bet or raise needs to be. That is true, except that now, there is no such thing as a semi-bluff, since you'll never improve. You have no card strength, only fold equity. You are playing their cards, not yours. That's often the way to go, but also often a huge downfall.

Hand 1:

You get 32o on the button:

2 limpers, holding A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]j[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The blinds are holding 22 and 72o. You raise (obviously, knowing there are no 2s left and that the limpers have speculative hands for the most part.). SB calls with 22, all call. 4 player to flop for 8SB.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checked to first limper who bets, second limper calls, you... um... fold. Or, if you raise to fold blinds and build fold equity, the blinds fold, the limpers call. (sure, they suck)

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 1st limper checks, second one bets, and you fold.

Okay, you would argue that you shouldnt' have gotten that far with someone holds a pair of Aces. Well, then why not fold preflop? Because you know their cards? Silly.

Hand 2:

You are MP1 and dealt 32o in a weak tight game. Folds to you and you raise. Button re-raises with TT and all fold. (or maybe you'll just fold here. But then, what hands ARE you playing against?)

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

At this point, you miraculously hold 42o (according to your premise). You bet trying to represent the K or J. Villain raises (correct on his part if he's never seen you show down a hand and begins to suspect you are a bluffing, action player). You 3 bet to keep on the disguise? You fold because you can't forsee a way to fold him before SD?

So you 3-bet to keep up your representation of the K. Villain calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] So you bet again. Villain hesitates and calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Great, a perfect scare card here, but maybe villain knows this too. The only way to win is to bet. So you do. Villain pauses a long time and then...

Hand 3:

3 limpers, holding J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 55, 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] limp to you in HJ. You raise with, surprise, 32o, noticing that CO, button, and SB have crap. BB calls with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Flop (10SB). 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Darn, you now hold 43o. But you have position, initiative and a whole bunch of people with hard to play hands. Two people have top pair, and one holds a 55.

check, check, bet (guy with top pair, BD flush draw and BD straight draw and who suspects you are raising light). You raise to try to get it heads up and buy this pot representing a better hand (which you can easily do if this succeeds, given your PF raise). Everyone folds to bettor who calls.

Turn (6BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checked to you. You can't bet, because you know he'll call with a flush draw and a pair. So you need to wait for a brick river.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (again, you miraculously now hold 52o.)

To your surprise. Villain bets into you. But you checked the turn. Perhaps you should have bet there for river fold equity. He figures you probably don't have the K, and he can represent a failed c/r on the turn, or something else that you now can't call. Your only option is to raise to try to fold him out. This will work a rather small portion of the time.

These hands, IMO, are actually quite normal in their play. If you want to explain to me how you could have played them differently to be 'profitable', go ahead. Perhaps you could have folded preflop, but then, what range of hands are you looking to play against? These seem reasonable. Sure, I came up with situations where someone hit something, and you may argue that it doesn't often happen. Okay, then you steal lots of small pots. This in no way makes up for your disadvantage.