View Single Post
  #4  
Old 09-20-2006, 01:51 PM
The Truth The Truth is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Word?
Posts: 3,361
Default Re: New guy question

[ QUOTE ]
In theory, a book would love balanced action (50-50 on each side) but in practice it doesn't happen.

Ultimately, it really doesn't matter. With Vegas lines of -110 or worse, a very high percentage of people can't overcome the juice long term to win, regardless of balanced action. So while a Vegas sports book may in theory experience revenue swings when a large public favorite covers one weekend, they're going to be a long term winner every time simply because of that rip they're taking from every bettor. In short, just like Party, they don't have to rig things: they're taking a rip from every pot, they just want to see a lot of volume.

What you talk about, with a book taking a position on a game, that's certainly a part of it. Linesmakers know a certainly amount of people are going to bet on Notre Dame, or Indy, regardless of where they set the line, for example. So that fact gets factored in to the line that's ultimately set... but in general these days, books can't risk hanging a rouge line by taking an extreme position on a game, because they'll get slammed from "scalpers" - people hammering at that rouge line and offsetting the action elsewhere to lock in a guranteed profit.

This is covered in brief in the FAQ in the question "how do the books make money?". I'll take a look at expanding that answer...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't LV sports consultants set the line for all the casinos? If so, they aren't setting a rogue line, they would be setting a line to make the casinos the most money, thus having the public lose the most.

For instance, since they know alot more people are going to bet on notre dame thant he other team, do they move the line to the disadvantage of the notre dame bettor.

Is this move an attempt to make it closer to 50/50 money on each side, or is this move an attempt to put the line somewhere different than what they think the true line is in order to give the house a higher +ev shot.
Reply With Quote