[Izverg04]

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Anyone who thinks Party cancelled the bonus because we were posting about it is a complete idiot.

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Why do you feel such a rush to dismiss well-reasoned advice? Because you feel the argument is not merited or because the poster doesn't have an established posting history?

The truth of the matter is that all of the people criticizing the actions of 2+2 posters know where they are coming from and what they are talking about, and the people who call the critics morons -- they don't.

Do we know for certain that Party pulled the promo because of the 10-page thread on 2+2? No we don't. But it is actually irrelevant. Even if they pulled it for other reasons, they played this hand correctly by accident. Because after the promo was plastered over all 2+2, it was no longer +EV for them.

Casino promos are not like poker bonuses. Poker sites actually make more money from a good player than from a bad player, so any promotional dollars spent on good players are usually +EV for a site. So post away all poker bonuses out there -- the sites will write you a thank you note.

The situation is quite different with the casinos. When a casino offers a promo, they will only make money from fish -- advantage gamblers become a serious drain for them. It's a necessary evil, because they need to run promos to attract fish, and the situation is usually well contained, with advantage gamblers pocketing a small slice of the pie, but if casinos are not careful, they will lose their shirts on promos.

When a good promo blows up all over 2+2, with very few exceptions, that promo is dead for the casino -- they will lose money on it. Do you think Mansion made money from their free bet promo? Do you think Party's promo would've been +EV for them with hundreds of 2+2ers with $30k bankrolls playing 3 tables of max bets for an hour? I contend that this promo would be clearly +EV for Party if it was not posted on 2+2 and that it is clearly -EV for them after it was posted.

So the end effect is that, no matter the reason for Party pulling the promo, Party lost, a bunch of gamblers like me who planned to play it but would've been smart enough to keep quiet about it lost, and the fish kept their money.

GG 2+2.