[Grisgra]

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Hey Grisgra,

When the ace comes, really the only hands that hero is still ahead of are draws that villain is still bluffing with. I guess you are saying that you think the chance of villain having such a draw is enough to justify a river call, is that right? Given his stats, on second thought, you may be right... but it seems close.

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That's exactly right. It's a flop that has a lot of draws, and I don't think we have odds to call on the turn if we think he's got a 7 or 8 -- even if we're ahead, too, one of those draws could come in. If I see the turn, I call the river getting 7:1, esp. given how agg this guy is. It might be wrong, I dunno. But I think if you say "fold the river" you have a tough time defending the turn call. The percentages that he's bluffing + that he'll bluff exactly flop and turn but give up on the river have to be exactly right for this line to be correct I think. Plus, you get no info.