[crockpot]

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Anyway I agree about Tradesports. There are only a handful of trades made every week, and frankly probably half of those are made by 2+2ers. Also, there aren't enough contracts. Right now, the bid-ask spread is 16.3-32.8 (!). It's probably fine for a rough ballpark estimate but I don't think "oh, TS went down 2%, something must have happened".

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i agree that TS isn't the most accurate source for this, but it does have fairly efficient markets on more quantifiable issues, like a team's chances of winning a game or a pennant. here, nobody feels they have enough information to set an accurate line, or to wager a lot of money on it.

people should certainly not overreact to a minor fluctuation on TS, and any major fluctuation will be a reaction to news that has been made public anyway.

now get back to writing some more baseball articles. i need reading material.