[homeslice]

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I just don't think the Steelers are going to win Monday, w/ or w/o Ben . So why piss away free cash. I still kept money at Mansion and w/ the 10% vig I locked up $43.27.


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The problem here is that you are presuming you know more than vegas does. If you are that sure that the jags are going to win you should be wagering a hell of alot more than 100 on this game. In reality, unless you are a professional handicapper who has inside information that the jags will cover there is very little reason to hedge this bet.

And there is certainly no reason to do so at a book that only offers 10% vig when there are a few sites out there that offer 4 or 5% vig.

I didn't hedge the pitt (was one of the suckers who got it at -5 and got lucky) bet because it was a free bet. Why tack on vig to a free bet? it reduces your ev. And on a bet that is even smaller there is less motivation for me to hedge.

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I know that I don't more than Vegas does, and I'm content w/ dat. When it comes to making large +EV speculations I rather do it in other arena, such as the futures market. Right now, especially w/ our depreciating dollar, there's more money (slight leverage) to be made there than other place that I know of.

Don't get me wrong there's nothing wrong w/ taking advantage of +EV situations in poker or sports gambling in general. However there's so many bright people on this forum, much brighter than me, and hopefully some of you will realize there's more +EV oppurtunities outside of poker and sports betting.

I've never bet on a game prior to the mansion bet, the only thing I've bet on previously besides poker was the over on Crank(movie). Anyhow the reason why I gave Mansion action wuz I think they may have a promotion for the NBA opener, and they may just allow their existing customers, who've made a few bets after the season opener to participate. That's why I sacrificed $2 EV+ I could have gotten at pinny, because I may be able to get $50+ EV down the road.

P.S. I went to see UConn(my alma mater) take on Wake Forest today. I so wish I wuz back in school. So many good looking ladies. Peace!