Re: check the flop, call down.
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Can you tell me why you would bet the flop and break down his hand range for getting paid off on the river, thanks.
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I dont really understand what you are asking in the second part of the question. I recommended a turn raise.
I'll do my best to answer the first part though. I normally bet here, but I am very open to being convinced that it is wrong. This is tough to do, but I tried putting these guys on some preflop hand ranges:
Board: Kc 9h 5d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.2311 % 23.72% 01.51% { AcQc }
Hand 2 (UTG): 35.9083 % 34.65% 01.25% { TT-33, AQs-A2s, K3s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-A2o, K6o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 3 (BB): 38.8606 % 37.69% 01.17% { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }
So if this range is reasonable, it wouldn't be a bet for value. This would be especially true if we would have to fold to a checkrasie because this would prevent us from realizing our equity (I would actually call a checkrasie here b/c of your 2 backdoor draws).
So, if the bet is not for value, it should confer other advantages. Here are some possible advantages:
1) You can take a free card on the turn if you wish.
2) It might prevent us from folding the best hand if someone decides to donk the turn after we showed weakness on the flop.
3) If we do have the best hand, we can give worse hands the option of making an incorrect call or a correct fold. If they make a correct fold, our chances of winning the pot improve.
Overall, I feel like the advantages make a bet correct here, but these factors are really hard to quantify.
As for the turn, you say he will not call 2 cold with a gutshot or pair. If he won't, I guess calling is ok. I haven't met many "super passive calling stations" who play that tightly postflop though.
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