Re: check the flop, call down.
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UTG is a LAGtard, very aggressive pre and post flop, the BB is super passive call station.
30/60 Hold'em (5 handed)
Preflop: Joe Tall is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Joe Tall 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (9.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Joe Tall checks.
Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Joe Tall calls, BB folds.
River: (6.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Joe Tall calls.
Final Pot: 8.75 BB
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joe tall,
i won't get into the flop action, but i would bet.
on the river, the key is that BB folded. you say UTG is a LAGtard and VERY aggressive pre and post flop. this is pretty key information.
i won't bother listing hands that fold the river, because they don't matter. you have probably made as much as you can from those hands by checking the flop and allowing him to bluff the big streets. i will only look at hands that can call or 3-bet the river, because those are the ones that dictate whether or not you should raise.
i will also assume he never 3-bets a worse hand but you will always call a 3-bet. so if he has A9 or KQ, i will assume he won't 3-bet. this is conservative in calling's favor.
hands that call (hand totals might be slightly off):
A2s+, A6o+ (not including AK/AQ because of preflop). this is 53 hands.
K9+ minus AK. this is 39 hands.
total hands that call = 92
hands that beat you and 3-bet you:
55 and JT, and JT is a stretch. but discounted 0%, these hands combine for a total 19 hands.
given my ranges (total of 111 hands), and assuming you always lose 2 against better hands and you always only win 1 from worse hands, the EV of raising the river is:
(92/111)(1) - (19/111)(2) = 0.49
so everyone suggesting the river raise was in fact suggesting to take another half a big bet from this player.
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