Re: 100/200 A4o on the button
yes you defiantely dont always ahve 7 clean outs, but you really only need on average about 6 of them if you know you'll get on average more than a bet on the river. but yea now it's real close and may be worth folding unless you take into acct that sometimes your opponent will check the river w/ a hand worse than yours since on this fairly drawless flop (from his vision of what you hold) you're turn call would be incorrect w/ just overs (unless again it's an ace over which he thinks you may think you'll get a cheap sd w/ forcing him to bet the river...but now we're getting all crazy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ). in this case (he thinks you're showing down your ace high), he may go ahead and check his hand and 'save' a bet although a vast majority of the time any worse hand than yours will bet the river thinking you'll fold a hand better than like 4 high 14% of the time.
so coming back, the chance that you are drawing slimmer than 7 outs is slightly made up for the times you call the turn and win the pot w/o calling a river bet. since you hold an ace, and since we are dealing w/ online high limit players, those chances actually come pretty close to evening out.
the reason i believe is that online, bbs tend to defend far more liberally, and take more aggressive lines w/ hands they shouldn't in general. they do rarely give up w/ a hand like Khigh or Qhigh or (again) rarely the 4 high draw here on the river after youc all that turn bet. however, they VERY often here have hands like K9-94s, 23s etc. etc. which makes up a hugely massive part of their range. the sets, 2 pairs, and ace kicked pairs are a small part of that range for a high limit online player. not AS small as the chance of him checking the river after your turn call, but small enough that i wouldn't be so quick to fold the turn here given your analysis.
also, i was assuming the 4 bet cap thingy was in efffect so the flop 5 bet isn't possible for paluka as far as i know (im pretty sure he plays mostly PS and PP so 4 bets is the limit).
one more thing...nice pun w/ hand.
Barron
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