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Obviously, any intelligent person realizes that they are far less likely to be caught for a crime if the victim is random. Motive isn't an element in criminal laws, but it sure makes it easier to catch and convict a person if there's a motive.
So I'm not sure what the actual "chances" are of getting away with murder since it's clearly a case by case basis. I can tell you this, though - the vast majority of people who get nabbed for a crime are caught because they do things too quickly and don't put enought thought into leaving the least possible amount of evidence behind.
Also, when I asked you where it was going to be done, I meant the geographic location. If state lines were crossed, the feds would become involved, and your chances of being caught would have increased astronomically. The feds aren't that much smarter (they are, to some degree), but their resources (compared to state-level law enforcement) are enormous.
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Definitely in the Phoenix/Metro area..
Before I start coming off as too creepy, this line of questioning is coming in relation to the
Baseline Killer in AZ.
Ray