[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
If you recognize that hedging 100% was wrong, but decided it was too much effort to do better, that's ok. Not noticing that hedging 100% was wrong indicates a conceptual error that is likely to be repeated. Being unable to admit that hedging 100% was wrong after it is pointed out and explained by a mathematician is just being dense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I recognize the 100% hedge was not an optimal choice. The fact of the matter was, I've never bet on sports before and when this promotion came about, the 100% hedge was worded as a "risk-free" way to make a "guaranteed profit" of $X. Knowing that I lack the knowledge of sportsbetting, I accepted a wager that yielded a satisfactory return. Busy with other things, it simply wasn't worth my time to figure out the correct way to make the optimal hedge, squeezing out a little bit more in EV.

The argument that I'm making can't be quantified in terms of dollars gained or lost. Considering my level of risk tolerance, time constraint and lack of knowledge in sportsbetting, my decision, while technically suboptimal, was correct for me at the given time. This may seem to be drawn out way of me saying "I was stupid and accepted it," but that's basically what it was.