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Old 09-05-2006, 08:17 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 2,260
Default Re: beating the big NL games..

Out of 1,326 possible hands, he goes all in on 40, and calls if no one raises on 54 more. He folds 93% of his hands. He has to make $50 per hand he plays just to get his blinds back. If everyone folds every time he plays, he's a loser because he only makes $35.

When he goes all-in, you know what he has. About 12% of the time at a table of 10, someone will have something better. That means when he does go all-in, he's likely to be called only when he's behind.

When he calls, he also gives away his hand. If you only have to worry about pairs from 2 to 10, and if you know he goes all in with a set on the flop, it's easy to raise when you're ahead and fold when you're not.

This guy will collect a lot of money from foolish people who call all in bets from a guy who plays less than one hand per round, while holding weak cards. He'll collect more from people who call all-in bets after the flop, when someone has represented a set. But he'll lose money against people who have figured out how to play him. He'll lose money when everyone folds, and he'll lose money when he's called.
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