[almostbusto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
assuming an efficient market hypothesis for the sportsbooks...

then I don't see how this could be anything but a anomaly

[/ QUOTE ]so you are saying that if you assume this is an anomaly, then it follows that this must be an anomaly. brilliant!

[/ QUOTE ]

1. No, he isn't.
2. STFU

[/ QUOTE ]yes he is. EMH assumes that any error in pricing is 'a random walk' or whitenoise or whatever you want to call it. there was obviously a pattern last year, one that favored favorites. if you assume EMH to be true then this could only be the result of an anomaly since since all prices are efficient at all times + or - some epsilon whose value is centered at zero.

in this case there is strong evidence that epsilon is not zero centered, therefore the hypothesis is incorrect or there is an anomaly, there is no other option.