View Single Post
  #13  
Old 09-05-2006, 10:39 AM
Shandrax Shandrax is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,664
Default Re: feeling down...but dont want to be out.

[ QUOTE ]
When you win, you will win a much bigger pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still it adds up for negative expectation, especially in limit poker.

Here is an example: Let's say you limp with 4-4. 80 out of 90 times you miss the flop and probably have to fold unless it comes extremely weird. 10 times you flop the set, but there is usually a straight or flush out which will hit about 33% of the time. So out of 90 hands you win about 6, or let's say 7 if you redraw to a full house. This means you have to make a plus of about 13 small bets each time you win to break even.

The average pot in $0.5/1 limit is about $5-6, so you need a lot of things to work for you to make this profitable. Ok, my examples might be a bit overexaggerated, but even with a $5 margin of error it is not that easy.

This little example shows why you shouldn't limp with small pairs, but that's another story. Suited connectors hit the flop more often, but usually only for a draw. Even if you restrict yourself to nothing but big cards, you are very vulnerable, because you are playing for "just" top pair.

Once again, if you win, you win a lot, but you don't win enough to cover your losses. That's my theory for small stakes games where you play a bunch of complete idiots.

I give you analogy to make it clear. Imagine you are playing rock/paper/scissors. If your opponents randomize their moves, there is no way to beat them. Yes, their own strategy isn't good enough to win either and they will usually end up in the middle of the pack, but still it's good enough to prevent you from getting an advantage regardless how sophisticated you play.

Poker is all about winning the dead money, because the good hands cancel out each other. If nobody is "good" enough to make a laydown, there is no dead money and with that no chance to win other than by a streak of dumb luck.
Reply With Quote