Re: 200-400 Hand.
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6/47 of the time we're going to turn a flush draw.
-> 9/46 on turn.
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There are ten outs on a flop to flush draw 7 to simple flushdraw, 1 to flush+openended, and 2 to flush+gutshot. You counted only 9. Is this because you discounted flush outs that pair the board?
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i actually just took these from an earlier post. i guess i should have checked them.
discounting for flush outs that pair the board is something that needs to be done though, and i'm not sure that reducing it like this is enough.
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So we're paying 0.883 bets to win 0.693 bets on average.
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Seems you're missed implied odds on a river which are positive even if you're including rare cases when our flush/straight will be dead. If you do - there will be more accurate ev-estimation from only backdoor outs.
Anyway - good job.
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yep, i was lazy and tired and decided not to include that since it really complicates things. i was somewhat conservative with the implied odds partly because of this, but i probably didn't discount enough. you can lose quite a bit when you make your flush and lose, even though that's going to be a rare case. i'm not really sure how to calculate the odds there, since estimating the frequency at which that happens is really difficult.
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