Re: 200-400 Hand.
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Reads are always nice, but this one is all math.
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Les, I agree with this, and that's why I feel knowledge of the opener is critical.
Let's say the turn improves your draw, or even gives you top pair or a pair or jacks. Whether the opener is going to check-raise the turn or not is paramount, since this is the difference between seeing the critical river card for 1 BB, or as many as 4. Huge mathematical difference.
Remember, the key to this problem, IMO, is that we have to figure the + or - ev knowing we need to hit twice. What it costs to get to the river is the most important factor.
TSP
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