Re: 200-400 Hand.
6/47 of the time we're going to turn a flush draw.
3/47 of the time we're going to turn an open-ended straight draw.
6/47 of the time we're going to turn a gutshot straight draw.
1/47 of the time we're going to turn an open-ended straight and flush draw.
2/47 of the time we're going to turn a gutshot straight and flush draw.
A bit less than 7/47 of the time we're going to turn a pair.
Taken from the turn forward, these are all profitable prospects, possibly (but not likely) excepting the turns where we make a pair. If these should be unprofitable, we're right to dump them even when we make a pair and lump them with the 22/47 of the time when we turn air and give the hand up. Complaints of bad reverse implied odds are largely without merit.
The question is whether the profitability of the 25/47 of the time wherein we improve on the turn outweighs the 1 SB investment which will have been lost those times we do not. I'm fairly certain, without having checked the numbers, that the answer is an emphatic yes.
The combo draws are hugely profitable in such a monsterous pot, as are the flush draws and open-ended straight draw. I don't have the time to run numbers here, but the amount you're going to be required to invest, on average, on the turn certainly factors heavily into the question of profitability. I'd ballpark the number at 1.33 BB on the turn, and hold that we can extract an average of 2 BB on the river when we improve. I haven't the time or inclination to run the numbers from there, but I'm fairly they'll support a peel.
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