[elindauer]

I used to think this was an easy fold, but Peter Rus convinced me (back when he posted the hand he linked to here) that it's actually a slightly positive EV call. I admit that I sometimes miss calls like these because I'm too quick to recognize that I "missed" and fold.

Note that we've been put in an almost perfect situation to make this call.

- button is a typical high stakes player, so he might be willing to cap preflop but then give us a free card on the turn (AK comes to mind here as a hand he might play very aggressively but then check after being called twice on the flop).

- we will likely know on the turn whether or not we can call closing the action. Our position here is perfect.

- our backdoor diamond draw is almost guaranteed to be good. AKd (Kd in our hand) AQd (Qd on board) AJd (Jd in our hand) are all impossible holdings.

- all backdoor straight draws guaranteed to be the nuts.


A K or J may also be good, as JJ and AK are both easily in button's range. I'd say it's a close call. If I'm wrong, then it's a close fold, but "clear fold" is almost certainly incorrect.

-Eric