[Buzz]

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It seems like you calculated the POSSIBILITY that those things would occur.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Greg. Not exactly. But I can see why you might think so.

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But in reality your opponents will not always have hands that fit. ie. you could be against A2JJ,A2JJ, and AQQT suited and have turn/river come 2,9 meaning low is enabled but it doesn't make anyone a low.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree that’s a good possibility. You also can lose when you make kings full (to aces full, quads, or a straight flush). But these two opposite effects don’t actually compensate equally for each other. I was rounding off, trying to keep the math as simple as possible for ease in understanding. But yes, you have a very good point. I actually did the calculations and reasoning in more detail, but then tried to simplify leaving out some low probabilities and rounding off others in order to explain more clearly. And you have now nailed me for it. Mea culpa.

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Obviously that is somewhat rare, but it does mean your #s slightly underestimate your true win %. same idea with flushes/straights.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. It’s rare in my games. And like I said, I was trying to make it simple.

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If you lose 2 out of 3 times here, but for every bet you put in you get 8 callers then obviously you'd be losing more than you win but still be correct to put more bets in.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. I thought I covered this concept somewhere, but maybe I didn’t make it clear. Whether to raise or not depends directly on the number of opponents who will call your raise. (And also on the effect the raise will have on their betting on subsequent betting rounds).

But yes, if you have eight callers and if one of them is going to jam all the way to the showdown and the rest will chase when you end up with a winner, then by all means raise it up.

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You don't need to be a favorite for it to be correct to put bets in. You just need to win more than your fair share of new money going in.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. This is further complicated by the effect a raise might have on your opponents on the final two betting rounds. In my humble opinion, a raise by Hero here can really cool things off when the board pairs. But maybe your experience is different than mine.

Buzz