Re: Week 7, post 2
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Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet at under 47. -126 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.
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Ok i've seen you mention stuff like this before. I have no idea what you are saying. Mind explaining it? Why does units bet matter?
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Sure. Let's say heads has a 50/50 chance of occuring on a coin flip. One sportsbook has odds of Heads +122 (wager conversion price 45.04% = 100/(100 +122). The disparity between the event occuring and the price to wager that event is 50.00% - 45.04 = +4.96%. This is very nicely +EV, so let's call this a 1 unit bet. At another sportsbook you see odds of Heads +150. Wager conversion price here is 40% = 100/(100 +150). The (win minus wager) price disparity in this case is 50% - 40% = +10%. Using the earlier disparity as a model for a 1 unit bet, I would then double my bet here to 2 units. This isn't precisely the way it works in my system but the idea is very similar.
It's not that the event suddenly has a higher chance of occuring on a 2 unit bet game (in other situations it may), but in this case the lower wager price makes the bet all the more attractive and worth scaling the amount risked.
I'll respond tomorrow, I've finally hit the wall after a verrrry long day.
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