[Josh W]

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Have you considered that AA is no good?

Why are you raising the turn where you are quite likely behind? to get re-raised? I mean. You put them on 78 or A8 or a pocket?

What about 88, 77, 65? Flush?


If it's 65, 88 or 77, you're drawing to 2 outs.

if it's a flush, you're drawing to um, 13 - 6 = 7 outs. You can take out the 7 or 8 as an out, so 6 outs.


What are you trying to chase out on the turn that's going to fold and what are the chances you're drawing dead or slim?

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You aren't counting outs very well if he's up against a flush. Not sure why you are discounting a 7 or 8, but you are also overlooking two 5s and 2 As. He has 10 or 11 outs, and by raising the turn, he may get a hand like 99 or A6 to fold which would be very good for him.

And, gabe, I have to disagree. The BB may well have a JJ or QQ, not threebet it preflop, then use the flop as a perfect opportunity to force out a presumed AQ/AK type of hand.

Mike, I prolly raise the river. I think BB put you on a flush and is betting his fullhouse. You can't count on any overcalls. I don't see how BB can be only calling your turn raise with a boat, given that SB's already put in two bets and will likely put in a third with a hand that is drawing (and drawing dead).

Raise the river (and, yes, pay off a 3rd bet)

Josh

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Josh this will sounds results oriented since Mike posted the results, but raising the river is still really bad, it's not close. I think you are a very solid player from the times we have played together, but even thinking that JJ/QQ is a feasible hand for the BB after the flop action so nuts, i am telling you, people just don't not 3 bet those into a field preflop and then put in as many bets on the flop and turn as this guy did.

Look at it this way, they dude didn't repop the the turn with 85 because he thought he was behind! That should show you how often he has JJ/QQ here and plays it this strongs (NEVER!) We are not ahead very often on the river IMO, and the fact that there is another player who we can lure into calling with a hand that is definitly worse than ours but will basically never cold call 2 makes this even easier. Raising the river is really bad. Anyone who thinks otherwise is wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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Hmmm, I still really disagree. Now, of course, we know that THIS PARTICULAR opponent wouldn't play JJ this way. But we certainly don't know that from mike's initial discription of him (good, semi laggy).

I mean, how would you play TT here? Laggy raises UTG. Couple cold callers, SB calls....you wouldn't threebet here would you? If so, I think that's a mistake....you'll make the pot so huge that any overcard will be tied to the pot, and you are going to need a set to win, getting like 4:1.

So you call with TT (JJ is closer, QQ should reraise, I think). Flop comes 8 high, and you lead out with your overpair knowing that the lagtard UTG will raise any two (note...I'm not saying mike's a lagtard or that he'd raise any two, but that his image is that he'd likely do so).

So lagtard raises, and there's one cold caller. wouldn't you threebet here?

I could also see the BB play 86 or 89 this way. And, heck, maybe 66 if he puts mike on something like AQs00ted.

Ultimately, mike raised the turn when a flush got there, and his opponent froze. Now, an obvious boat comes, and his opponent wakes up again. I'm saying that evidence makes me think he has a boat. Or, more accuately, I think that it makes a boat his MOST LIKELY holding. And, hey...mike has a way above avg boat!

Josh

man...i can't see not raising the river. the villain (BB) is laggy. no way he doesn't reraise a boat on the turn. only hand we have to fear is 65, and that seems farfetched.