[MN_Mime]

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Regarding the turn: You really can't give your A's and Q's full outs because it is very likely that one or both of your opponents has an A or a Q in his hand.

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I'm actually counting on it (and was wrong, but it was close) because it's the only way that I dominate MP1. There's no holding he can have that I am concerned about except *maybe* 88.

Possible MP1 holdings
QQ//KK/AA - PF 3-bet
JJ/TT/99 - often PF 3-bet
AKs/AKo/AQs - PF 3-bet
AJs - often PF 3-bet
KQs/KQo/KJs - calls
QJs - calls only if the table will come along
weaker hands usualy fold

When MP1 calls the flop bet with no cards in the playing zone and 2 diamonds, he pretty much defines his hand as [pick two] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] because I hold his ace. I dominate all of those hands, so as long as the flush doesn't come I will beat him. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is in MP1s hand or improves MP1 to a flush so I'm not even counting it. 3 (Aces) + 2 (Queens) + .5 (nBDFD) = 5.5 outs. The BDFD might only be drawing to 7 outs twice if UTG holds a diamond in his PP so discounting it is probably good but doesn't affect the odds any.

While it's possible that UTG+1 has QQ/AA the likelihood is reduced by the fact that my holding halves the likelihood he has either hand and MP1's likely holding all but eliminates QQ. I can eliminate AK/AQ, because I don't think there's any way he 3-bets the flop (again because I hold the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so he would not be suited or drawing to nBDFD).

I concede I'm well behind, but all of the outs I've counted are good. I'm giving up the turn on any card in the playing zone that doesn't improve me.


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On the flop you almost need the BDFD to be able to call.

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This is true but mostly because it means that all of my Ace outs are live and not completing the flush. The fact that I have a redraw is a bonus.