[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call let alone 3-bet this hand PF. You simply do not have enough equity here given his range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1092 % 53.45% 01.66% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 20.5332 % 17.43% 03.10% { 88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 24.3576 % 20.09% 04.27% { AdQs }

I have 20%-25% equity (4:1-3:1) and being BB and closing the action, the pot is laying me 5.5:1.

Even if you skew their ranges against me, a preflop call is still good.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.4951 % 51.38% 02.11% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.8137 % 23.04% 01.78% { JJ-88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 21.6911 % 18.46% 03.23% { AdQs }

If I had more confidence that these two could be playing light, this is a raise but as it stands, it's a pretty big mistake to fold pre-flop.


[ QUOTE ]

As far as the flop, I don't get it. What do you intend to do with the turn if you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a brain fart. When I put MP2 on a hand, it all fell into place for me that I was in much better shape than I had thought and somehow that translated into a c/r instead of a c/c.

25% of the time
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.3121 % 64.53% 02.78% { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 19.9954 % 18.68% 01.31% { 88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 12.6925 % 09.10% 03.60% { AdQs }

75% of the time
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.7369 % 59.74% 00.00% { JJ-99 }
Hand 2: 16.5788 % 16.58% 00.00% { KJs+, KQo }
Hand 3: 23.6843 % 23.68% 00.00% { AdQs }

25% of 12% (3%) + 75% of 24% (18%) = 21%, so I'm still at 4:1 odds and I'm getting 7.5:1 to call the flop. Again, an easy call closing the action. The raise was a mistake.

If I play the flop correctly, the turn is a clear fold at 5.75:1.
If UTG+1 just smooth-calls me on the flop, the turn is a reasonable fold at 7.25:1.
After I butcher the flop, UTG+1 prices me into calling with ~8:1 odds and getting 8.75:1.

As far as "what's my plan for the rest?"... none, and that's the worst part. The rest of the hand plays itself, but once I made the decision that my outs were good and committed myself to the pot, I almost certainly should have value bet the river.


Thanks for the input, everyone!