[binions]

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Every book I have ever read says to count 9 outs for a flush draw because you are never sure how many if any are out.
But sitting at a full table I know over 30% of the cards have been dealt out. Chances are that if you are on a flush draw some of your outs have already been discarded. I took a deck of cards and dealt out 9 hands 20 times, 19 out of the 20 times had at least 1 of every suit dealt out.

If I am on a spade flush draw-when counting my outs, should I really be counting 9. Or would it make since to take the average # of spades left wich would be closer to 7 spades. My thinking is if 30% of the cards were dealt out that means 4 spades were dealt out on average, I recieved 2 of them. That means that on average 2 other spades were mucked or in other hands and my acutal outs would be closer to 7 and not 9.
Obviously if my thinking is correct, this changes the odds of completing a flush draw dramatically.

Please, anyone who has more thoughts or insight into this reply and let us discuss furthur.

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I am reminded of the drunk in the 10 handed Omaha game who, when told his foe had 17 outs on the turn, said "Good thing there are only 6 cards left in the deck."