Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
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I haven't really put a whole lot of thought into this week's lines yet as I usually base most of my analysis on watching the teams play, and I don't bet very heavy the first couple weeks of the season. I haven't placed any bets yet either as I'm waiting for a Neteller transfer to go through.
With that said, the one line that really jumps out at me is Texas -41. In Texas, you have a team that consistently blows out weak opponents year in and year out, going against a North Texas team that consistently gets blown out in non-conference games and is now way down from years past, looking like one of the weakest teams in the Sun Belt.
Factor in that Mack Brown's going to want to get both QBs work and will be passing late into the second half, and I think this line would have value at -50. Seriously, I can't imagine the Horns scoring less than 60 in this game or UNT scoring more than 7.
One other thing I wanted to mention is the Kentucky/Louisville game. Why do people like Kentucky here? Louisville always blows people out at Papa John's, and they look to have the most talented team in Petrino's tenure. They tend to let down in mid-season road games, but in a home opener against a rival, I'd expect them to win by at least 4 TDs. -22.5 sounds like a bargain to me.
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I don't like either team at 22'. I think that line is very close to what is going to happen. Obv the half won't happen, but you know what I mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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