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Old 08-26-2006, 07:51 AM
Shandrax Shandrax is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,664
Default Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed

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The question is if you want to go through that roallercoaster to accept swings of 20k or more to make $1000 a month.

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I hope you are exaggerating and don't really believe this.
Lots of players make significantly more than $1k/mth without ever having had a downswing anywhere near $20k.

Did you mean a swing over 20k hands?

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It was an exaggerated assumption made on the basis of one of DS' comments about the big game. He said:

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If you make 1/10 of a big bet per hour you will occasionally have a 4000 bet downturn.

In a 900 hour year you will expect to make $360,000. Plus or minus about 5 million.

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About Hold'em in particular there is not only the statistical variance that leads to downswings, I also think that people tend to overestimate their edge on the game in general. With all the books out, there is so much information available that the bad players don't play as bad as they used to. It's tough for a real donkey to produce a lot if he strictly sticks to a starting hand chart that makes him fold 80% of his hands. They also see when they make top pair and bet it and they recognize a flush draw also and will take it to the river. Lot's of automatic plays in limit don't offer much scope for the pro to play that much better.

Don't get me wrong, of course good players have an edge in limit, but it's not as gigantic as people want to believe.

There is a funny experiement going on at a german pokersite atm. They got a high stakes pro ($100/200) trying to build a bankroll from scratch to show the n00bs that it's a piece of cake. He started with $50 about 40+ sessions ago and his bankroll made it barely above $100. Everyone would expect him to crush those microlimits, but he didn't.
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