One game this week had a very large impact on the bottom line -- San Diego at Oakland.
Oakland to win +115
Three significant trends, two against San Diego and one for Oakland, as well as a smaller trend for Oakland pushed the favorability of a straight up Oakland win to above 60%. Based on a money line wager price of +115, Oakland to win was made a significant play with strong justification. San Diego enjoyed an above 35% likelihood of winning outright and did so.
Oakland teaser +8
Historically, home dogs of +1.5 to +3 are afforded a 46% coverability edge with a 6 point tease. For example, if a home underdog +2.5 has a 50% chance of covering the spread, it will enjoy a 73% likelihood of covering +8.5:
(100-50)% chance of non-cover with +2.5
46% x 50% = 23%
Home dog +8.5 = 50% + 23% = 73%
Another example:
Underdog +2.5 60% chance of cover
46% x (100-60)% = 18.4%
Home dog +8.5 = 60% + 18.4% = 78.4%
Oakland's coverability +8 exceeded 80%. However, San Diego still enjoyed a 15+% chance of covering -8 and to their credit, they did so. This will inevitably occur over the course of a season.
Such is the nature of probability forecasts -- rarely is any event a sure thing. Regardless, you increase your wagers when the time is right. Winning at NFL wagering involves the same principles as card-counting in blackjack and bidding up pots in poker: you load up when strong opportunities arise. Even if the analytic concepts that justify increased wagering are strong, frequently you lose; more often in the long-run, you win.
Cross-posted to
SYGamel's NFL Picks