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Old 08-21-2006, 11:18 PM
bobneptune bobneptune is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 302
Default Re: Am I folding this AJ to a shove?

2 points here:

first, although i have enormous respect for nath's talents here and while hero seems not to be getting the right price for a call, i think AJo IS getting the right price to call a push.

blinds and antes = 1,000 + utg+ 1 raises the blind to 800 + hero re raises to 2800 makes pot = 4,600.

if utg+1 shoves, he must call hero's re raise adding 2,000 to the pot (now 6,600) + shove in the rest of his 4,475 chips making the pot 11,075.

hero's call of the shove is only 4,475, giving him pot odds to call the shove of almost exactly 2.5-1

there is only ONE hand hero is behind by significantly more than 2.5 - 1 and that is exactly AA.

hands like KK-JJ and AK and AQ he's almost exactly 2.5-1 against.

lower pairs than JJ he's 11-10 against and is getting tremendous overlay.

hands like KQ, he is ahead of and getting the price, and there is certainly a non zero chance utg+1 is on worse hands or a bluff.

unless i mucked up the math somewhere, unless you can say he's precisely on AA , its an insta call by the math.

secondly, i think re raising an utg+1 raise with AJo shows complete disdain for the gap concept, unless you have him as very laggy
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