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Old 08-21-2006, 03:49 PM
d240t d240t is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 223
Default Re: Gus and Danny\'s set over set

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I think the problem with this analysis is it leaves out both the texture of the board and Daniel's actions. At the same time Daniel's trying to put Gus on a hand (which you argue is a wide range), Gus is also putting Daniel on a hand.

Just looking at the river action alone, I think Gus knows that Daniel isn't making a clear value bet into that pot with that board without a beast. Gus went for the river CR because he had Daniel on a monster as soon as Daniel called his flop CR.

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I intentionally left out board texture in my argument, because I was simply trying to point out that the range that people put Gus on is simply too narrow to allow for a fold, because his preflop/flop/turn actions do not significantly narrow his range. Some people have argued that Gus would only check raise a set or 2pr on that flop...I think he could check-raise as little as a gutshot to the nuts or a pair+gutshot combo, like T7 or 57.

That said, DN was probably thinking Gus put him on higher cards. Gus didn't have to put DN on a tight range because he already had the nuts. By the time the action gets to the river, he only has to put him on a range of a) calling a bet but not betting, b) a hand worthy of a bet, or c)a draw/bluffing hand. Since Gus decided it was either b or c and very unlikely to be a (based on the board texture), he check-raised the river.

Now on to the check-raise. This check-raise is one of 3 things, a) the nuts or near nuts (ie any boat), b) a straight (doesn't seem like he'd c/r all in with this hand very often on that board, unless it was T7 exactly giving him the 2 card nut straight on a board with a 4 straight, or perhaps 57 giving him the trips+1card straight, making a full house less likely), or c) a bluff.

What kinds of hands could he bluff? I think he thinks DN is capable of folding the straight on that board, so he could be bluffing with an overpair, trying to represent a full house to get Daniel to fold a straight.

Do I think that the bluff or the straight or the straight+trips or the weaker boat are more likely than the higher boat or quads? Not really...but even if they are even money, DN profits by calling. I think there is enough doubt here to make calling clearly correct, although really confusing and somewhat sickening.

But what I really wanted to point out is, I don't believe DN could have or should have eliminated hands like 57, 58, 59, or T7 from Gus's range based on the preflop and flop action...perhaps he could eliminate them based on the river action, but definitely not by the flop, as other posters have suggested.
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