Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
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its pretty simple.
you are overestimating your edge.
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Fair enough.
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trust me, its not meant as an insult. far from it.
the market is effeciant. no matter what you think about a particular game, rarely is the market wrong as much as you think it is in the game we are talkign about.
o33.5 is an AWESOME bet, and the market activity afterwards confirms that. o34 is proabbly +EV, but its scraping the bottom of the barrell.
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