Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
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I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)).
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its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back.
while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run.
again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market.
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I think you're coming to broad conclusions, Sub. I lowered the units played on account of the move to 35. The value is not gone, it is reduced. There is a clear difference.
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The value is GONE. the edge is GONE.
Your edge is so minute, that a move of 1.5pts across a key number is ENORMOUS.
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I apologize but I'm going bust out some numbers again. Let's say I project a total to go over 33.5 60% of the time (the amount is higher in the case of Mia/TB but that's beside the point) and that this is a 2 unit bet. Assuming a move from 33.5 to 35 takes away 4.5% of the value of the over, I now project over 35 to occur 55.5% of the time. By your thinking, I don't play over 35 at all, despite a +EV scenario, because "the value is gone". In contrast, I reduce the ov 35 play to a 1 unit bet.
I suspect there's some kind of simple disconnect here but I'm not certain.
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