Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
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I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)).
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its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back.
while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run.
again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market.
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I think you're coming to broad conclusions, Sub. I lowered the units played on account of the move to 35. The value is not gone, it is reduced. There is a clear difference.
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The value is GONE. the edge is GONE.
Your edge is so minute, that a move of 1.5pts across a key number is ENORMOUS.
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