Re: So how did you bust out?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
100/200/25. Weak-tight guy who limps a little too much but folds way too much limps. BB who likes to telegraph what he's doing is clearly uninterested. I make it 1k from the sb with T5o. bb folds, weak tight guy calls. I started with ~8500, he covers. Flop A55. I bet 1300, he moves in, I beat him into the pot. Table chuckles when I turn over T5o, he shows AK. Turn K. River K.
Steve
[/ QUOTE ]
stats - when the $$ went in 91.11 vs. 8.89, After the turn card, 97.73 vs. 2.27.
[/ QUOTE ]
I think you have those backwards, after the turn the guy has 4 outs out of 44 cards giving him 1/11 shot of winning or around 91 vs 9. Actually I think your numbers aer just flat out wrong
[/ QUOTE ]
the numbers are from the calculator at the websiite of card player magazine. after the turn card, there is one king left in the deck and he needs that one card. so now it's 1/44 = .022727272727272727....273
[/ QUOTE ]
Say what? Why wouldn't an Ace win it for him too? There are 2 aces and 2 kings left in the deck, so he's about 8% to hit on the turn.
On the flop he's drawing a lot thinner than 9% too. Unless he's got a backdoor flush draw there are only 5 turn cards which will give him a draw to a 4 outer. So that would be odds of 5/45 * 4/44 = 1% chance on the flop, or the equivalent to a 0.25 out draw.
Not sure if this was a joke post maybe but if so I don't get the sarcasm.
[/ QUOTE ]
Wow you are wrong also, his odds aren't that bad on the flop, remember an A on the turn or river is already 2 outs, so he definately has more odds than what you listed.
[/ QUOTE ]
OK let me visualize the hand for you -
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Board
Bad beat poster T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Other Guy A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
So after the flop their hands Are pair of 55s with AKT kicker
and Trip 5s with T, ace kicker. If an ace comes, the trips turn into a full house, and the pair of fives turn into two pair. But a king came. So he has KK55A - two pair. an ace on the river gives him 55AAK. So he needs the running kings on the turn and river so that it is 555AT vs. KKK55.
|