Re: *Official* HSP 8/14
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To say it's an "easy fold" is either some ridiculously tight-weak poker, or ego-driven results-based thinking.
Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that. If he did think that he (Daniel) successfully planted the idea in Hansen's mind, then he would expect Hansen to be very aggressive with a wide range of hands. If he has nothing, he might be able to scare off Daniel's overpair on the kind of board that hits the sort of hands Gus will play. If he has a strong, but second best hand like 59, then he'll try to get value against an overpair.
Either way, the way Daniel acted throughout the hand was designed to encourage action - and so when he actually gets action, he's not going to take it as a conclusive sign that he's beat. Both of them know Gus' image, and Daniel could've made Gus think that Daniel thought he was calling off a bluff raise and bet on the turn with a medium strength hand like an overpair. And if Daniel thinks that's what Gus is thinking, then Daniel's actions are a natural conclusion to that, based on what Daniel thinks Gus is thinking.
You say Gus couldn't have played that way without a hand that beat Daniel, but that's nonsense. Gus certainly doesn't come from that weak-tight camp, so you can't base Daniel's analysis of his action based on that. Gus could've had a range of hands there that Daniel beat, and Daniel is getting like 2:1 on it. Still, it's not like Daniel is pot-committed at that point, so a bluff is still a viable option.
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This is the best analysis of the hand. This was poker at its absolute best, and the river check by Gus was brilliant.
The river check was the key to the payoff. DN thought that Gus put DN on an overpair with the river C/R, which was part of DN's plan through the whole hand. DN said as much in his blog. DN verbalizes the possible hands that beat him before he calls, but I think this was just to let everyone know that he was considering all the possibilities before he called with his boat, thinking that he had trapped Gus into thinking that he (DN) sold Gus that his (DN's) hand was simply an overpair.
This is 4th or 5th level thinking, and maybe more, and Gus went one level deeper in the analysis. Like others have said, I would really like to hear how Gus analyzed this hand as it rolled out. Gus's giant brain was one step ahead of DN at the end, and the river check was superior poker.
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This line of thinking supports the vibe I got from DN when he alerted Doyle and Eli to the big pot he wa about to call. He did it in a confident/cocky type way...not in a "oh man such a tough call"
when he was running through the hands that beat him he didn't seem terribly concerned just that if it was one of those he was being cold decked big time and there was nothing he could do about it. I really got the vibe from DN that he thought his "plan" had worked...and he was about to get seriously payed off
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That's funny because I got exactly the opposite vibe from him in that spot. He looked like he knew he was going to get beat and wanted to have Doyle watch to get some sympathy.
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