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Old 08-15-2006, 04:49 PM
pwalsh21 pwalsh21 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 195
Default Re: *Official* HSP 8/14

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Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that.

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Except for betting the river; what overpair bets that river?
Likewise, Gus isn't check-raising the trip 5s or the straight on the river, and he's probably betting a lot more than 24k on the turn with trip 5s.

Now, whether or not anyone could make that fold in the heat of battle is a different question, but when Daniel makes the large river bet Gus almost certainly has 99 or 55 to c-r all in.

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So isn't it possible that Gus may have thought, "If I c/r all in, Daniel will put me on exactly 99 or 55 and fold anything less than that"? Gus wasn't at the table when Daniel folded the nut flush to Brunson, but he probably knows Daniel is capable of laying down a big hand. Gus could also have been steaming from losing a bunch of pots, that he'd be crazy enough to make a move like that.

I think everything saying Daniel has to fold 4th nuts b/c Gus "obviously" has 99 or 55 is exactly why there's a chance Gus could be bluffing.
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