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Old 10-11-2005, 09:57 PM
sublime sublime is offline
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Default Re: Week 6, post 5

Just as an example, if you have a team that abnormally will cover 12 (vs. 6) points more than what is expected in general, then it may be more +EV to teas that team vs playing them straight up at +6. I don't know if your system generates this type of analysis, but certainly its feasible.

No, its not. For a few reasons:

A) The way scoring is done in the NFL. After you cross the 3/7, the chances of a game landing on a particular # drop considerably. Making your theroy basically mathmatically impossible.

B) No handicapper (well a winning one) is that enamored with himself enough to think that he can predict the scores of games within 6 points (again, unless the line is in the 3/7 area)

Anyway, I'm done with this discussion. Lets just say I have no doubt that I'm right.

Funny, I was goign to say the SAME exact thing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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