Re: Week 6, post 5
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yes!
if your going to tease, BOTH teams need to be gaining the 3 and the 7 (99% of the time, the other 1% you are getting the 1/2 off the 3) if not, flat bet.
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Not if the flat bets are less +EV than the teas. Sublime you should know better than that.
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Uggh. I just spent 10 posts saying that the tease that doesnt gain the 3/7 WONT be more EV.
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I think you're too focused on following "general rules" and "guidelines". While it may be true (and I think it is true) that the only teasers that are +EV in general are those that cross the 3/7, it doesn't mean that "no other" teaser bets are +EV. If Syg's system says a teas bet, with or without crossing the magic numbers, is +EV and he believes that his system is correct, then it would be incorrect for him NOT to bet them. I think you are trying to apply a general rule that applies to random selections to a system that does not. By the way, you are not the only one who has criticized Syg for not follwing the "generally accepted sportsbetting principles" -- Craig R comes to mind as someone who has criticized Syg's non-buying of points and Syg has very clearly explained his rationale for his decisions there as well (not to say he's right, just saying he's thought about all this stuff pretty deeply).
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I think sublime is absolutely right on the merits of 3-7 and I've never disagreed about the importance of that track. I have some different thoughts about diversifying risk but really we're hardly far apart.
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I agree about the diversifying risk part, but not about the rest. Just as an example, if you have a team that abnormally will cover 12 (vs. 6) points more than what is expected in general, then it may be more +EV to teas that team vs playing them straight up at +6. I don't know if your system generates this type of analysis, but certainly its feasible.
To use a bad poker analogy, I think its generally accepted that calling two bets cold with 45s with 3 opponents from the button is generally -EV, but against the right opponents, it might be +EV. In the right situation (again, not saying your system tells you this), playing an unconventional teas might be correct.
Anyway, I'm done with this discussion. Lets just say I have no doubt that I'm right.
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