Re: *Official* HSP 8/14
To say it's an "easy fold" is either some ridiculously tight-weak poker, or ego-driven results-based thinking.
Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that. If he did think that he (Daniel) successfully planted the idea in Hansen's mind, then he would expect Hansen to be very aggressive with a wide range of hands. If he has nothing, he might be able to scare off Daniel's overpair on the kind of board that hits the sort of hands Gus will play. If he has a strong, but second best hand like 59, then he'll try to get value against an overpair.
Either way, the way Daniel acted throughout the hand was designed to encourage action - and so when he actually gets action, he's not going to take it as a conclusive sign that he's beat. Both of them know Gus' image, and Daniel could've made Gus think that Daniel thought he was calling off a bluff raise and bet on the turn with a medium strength hand like an overpair. And if Daniel thinks that's what Gus is thinking, then Daniel's actions are a natural conclusion to that, based on what Daniel thinks Gus is thinking.
You say Gus couldn't have played that way without a hand that beat Daniel, but that's nonsense. Gus certainly doesn't come from that weak-tight camp, so you can't base Daniel's analysis of his action based on that. Gus could've had a range of hands there that Daniel beat, and Daniel is getting like 2:1 on it. Still, it's not like Daniel is pot-committed at that point, so a bluff is still a viable option.
It's easy to tell yourself you'd have made the right decision when you have all the information, but if they didn't show Gus' cards, are you really saying "easy fold" before showdown?
I bet if Gus had 59 no one would be criticizing Daniel's decisions - yet they would be the exact same decisions based on the same information.
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