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Nobody has mentioned the percentage of times he has AA-QQ and 3bets you.

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I am going to very rarely get 3-bet by an over pair in this game. Live games tend to play more passive on big streets.

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Two other things to consider (I like Hobb's idea here...):

1. Hobbs was playing like the Foxwoods 20/40 version of the DERB, and couldn't possibly miss his draw here... (the kid made like 7 racks or something...)

2. [Serious] The hands that Hobbs is likely to get three-bet by (the overpairs primarily) are hands that Hobbs has at least 13, and usually 15, outs against. Since he's hitting so much of the time here, getting three-bet is not nearly as bad as it would be if he had only a flush draw or something like that. Each bet that goes in is costing him like 1/6 of a BB, which is not a particularly steep price considering the size of the pot at this point. If we realize that Hobbs is risking somewhere between 1/6 and 1/3 of a BB on his raise here (depending on whether he get's three-bet), I think it's safe to say on average the "cost" of Hobb's raise is something like .2-.25 BB (remember, villain is passive). In a pot that has reached 5 BB already, Hobbs only needs to be right here like 1 in 20 times or even less to make this raise correct. Hobbs is likely to be up against AK at least some significant portion of the time here, and if villain folds even reasonably often I think it's clear we'll get a fold at least the necessary 5% of the time. Add in the metagame value and so on and I like this a lot.

3. I kind of prefer this line to the "raise-the-flop-for-a-free-card" line because that line is very unlikely to get us to defeat AK unimproved. A loose passive opponent like this will probably call the flop raise, and then if we take a free card we're going to have a very hard time getting our opponent to lay down anything, including AK unimproved, on the river. (Indeed, a river bluff at that point on our part would be very imprudent in what would be small pot). We're almost certainly getting three-bet on the flop by if villain has an overpair, and so most of the time raising the flop does nothing.

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The cost of being 3-bet by TT is .434BB. The cost of being 3-bet against the other overpairs (JJ-AA) is about -.7BB.

What this comes down to, for the most part, is a question of how often BB leads a non AhKh-based AK into hobbs again on the turn. We're describing him as passive, relatively unable to 3-bet one pair on the turn, but at the same time, relatively likely to continue leading the turn with AKo. There isn't a huge discrepancy here but there is one worth considering.

Since we think we're very unlikely to be 3-bet on the turn, our raise needs to have the effect of villain folding about 16% of the time here for a raise to be good. So if the ratios seem to be pointing to the fact that villain would lead with an unhearted AK intending to fold to a raise frequently (only has to be about 25% of the time)), then I think I like it.