Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
[ QUOTE ]
For South Carolina - Miss State: Last season, the Gamecocks had a pretty horrendous run D (174 yards/game), which was also the only bright spot on MSU's offense last year (138 rush yards/gm). The offensive line for the Dogs STUNK, so it seems Norwood was the main and maybe SOLE reason for an average running game. Norwoord is gone, and while Thornton averaged 4.8 yards/carry, Dixon may be the starter. MSU's offensive line should improve, but I'm not sure South Carolina's run D will be any WORSE than last year.
South Carolina lost a solid amount in the secondary, but I am nowhere near confident in Mike Henig tossing passes to a Omarr Conner (former QB), Tony Burks (JUCO transfer, 1st year in system), and Will Prosser (catch more than 28 balls, please?). Miss State will be improved on the field, but I think with Spurrier's attack, it could be a little ugly.
[/ QUOTE ]
Good stuff, but I kinda feel like some of it supports betting MSU more than USC. As you point out, the USC run D was terrible last year. While they can't be much worse, I don't see them being any better, either. I don't remember his name offhand, but USC only has one decent player on the line, and from what I've heard, he's lazy and might not even start. Because MSU should be able to run the ball at least semi-successfully, that will keep the pressure off Henig. MSU only tends to look really bad against teams that can stop the run without "trying" to, because those teams can focus on the pass. With regard to Conner and Burks, Conner is a very good athlete, and I've heard good things about Burks, too. With USC having a mediocre secondary, I really think that MSU can get 17-21 points on the board, despite the inexperience and the mediocre offensive line. So, it really comes down to whether USC will be able to hang 24+ on the MSU defense. Maybe, as they have talent at RB and WR, but I think that their line is so mediocre that the skill players won't be able to get as many 1-on-1 match-ups as they otherwise might. Plus, I'm not sold on USC's QB. So, I don't think they get to 24, and MSU covers/wins.
[ QUOTE ]
Here are a couple questions:
1. So. Caro. led the nation in snaps last year at 605, will the new rules effect them more than others?
[/ QUOTE ]
I might not be thinking about this right, but I would actually think that it would affect them LESS than other teams. The main rule that I have been alluding to is that the clock will start on a 1st down when the ball is ready for play, rather than when the ball is snapped. So, teams that don't take a lot of time to run their plays aren't going to lose as much time, relatively, as teams that take 30 seconds per play. That's my gut answer, but I might need to think about it some more...
[ QUOTE ]
2. Do you bet straight up moneylines? If so, why?
[/ QUOTE ]
The "correct" answer is that you should find a line converter (I'm sure that craig's site has one) to see where the value is better: pointspread or moneyline. Personally, I go more on "feel," unless the spread/ML are really out of whack, but that might be a leak... My feelings on the spread/ML issue are a little different than the "sharp" opinion on this forum, so I wouldn't feel comfortable peddling my nonsense to others... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
And, incidentally, don't you feel like the research that you did on the USC/MSU game is a heck of a lot more relevant than any "trend" stats that might be out there? Even though we disagree on the interpretation, looking at the details and trying to play out the different facets of the game in your mind is the ONLY way to win, IMHO.
ML4L
|