[ML4L]

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I don't dislike any of your bets.

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I think I will take South Carolina and Iowa State.

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Um, clearly, you can't be too crazy about my Miss. St. and Toledo picks... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Some other games I'm eyeing, what do you think?

LSU -30.5 v. Louis. Laf.
Hawaii +16 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan
N. Illinois +18 @ Ohio State
TCU -8.5 @ Baylor
Arizona -7 v. BYU

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I generally would rather lay the points than take them when it comes to Sun Belt teams out of conference, but LSU has too many question marks for me, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. If I'm going to lay a ton of points, I like to be certain that there will be complete dominance up front. Even though La. Lafayette will be overmatched, I don't see them being overmatched by much more than 4 TDs, given their relatively decent talent at the skill positions.

I like Hawaii this year, but they're a team that I won't play on away from home. I might be giving up value on occasion, but, whatever... FWIW, I like Alabama this year, but they are weak in the secondary, so I actually think this is a pretty good match-up for Hawaii.

Vandy would be my lean in the Vandy/Mich game; I was actually hoping to play Michigan before the line posted, but 25.5 is too many.

I loved NIU last year, but I can't help but wonder if Wolfe will be as good without his O-line. So, I probably won't play on or against them the first few games until I get a feel for how the new line will perform.

I'd lean toward taking the points with Baylor. TCU's D might be a smidge better this year, but their offense is probably going to fall off a little bit, and Baylor is not as bad as people think, particularly on D. Now that I think about it, I had meant to have this game as one of the unders that I am looking at...

I would lean to Arizona, but I am not comfortable with the hype about their defense until I see it in action. Everyone ran on them last year, and I hate teams that can't stop the run.

Care to share your thoughts on So. Car. and Iowa St.? Iowa St. was one of my sleepers last year, and I cashed on them a few times. But, their O-line worries me this year, as does their defense. I think they've gotten over-hyped, and Toledo is the best team in the MAC, IMO. Line looks like it should be -3 or -3.5 to me... I like Spurrier, but aside from the skill positions, his talent is no better than Miss. St.'s. I think that they overachieved last year and are going to fall back to earth this year. Miss St.'s defense was not bad last year and should be even better this year. Laying a TD is a LOT of points on the road; I think the game should be closer to -2.5.

ML4L