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Old 08-07-2006, 10:09 AM
Atropos Atropos is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 713
Default Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread

I'm not informed on sports betting, but arent the odds on Rizen very great and on Friedman quite ok too? Rizen is 33/1 which means he would need 2.9% to win for breaking even on the bet. Currently he has 2.2% of all the chips in play. However his equity is probably higher because:

a) There is a huuuge gap between the first two players and the rest of the field. They got so many chips, that a big part of them are "useless" because they cant double up with them right? This must mean that they are losing some $EV, which will go over to the short and average stacks.
b) Rizen has probably an edge skillwise on a big part of the field. His M is around 20, so he can still benefit from it, play is far from push/fold mode.
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