Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
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To handicap season win totals you have to start in the division. All the NFC East teams are tough but I don't see any clear cut favorite there. The home team would be favored no matter which two of them were playing. Eagles should win 2-4 games here. Let's use 3 for this.
The rest of the schedule:
Games they should win...@ Houston, @ S.F., Green Bay, @ New Orleans, Tenn
Games they should lose...@ Indy, Carolina
Tossups...@ Tampa, Jacksonville, Atlanta
That's 8-5-3 and they will be favored over Jax & Atl at home. I'd lean toward the over but I don't see enough edge to bet it myself.
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Excellent analysis, imo.
natedogg
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it is a mistake to assign 1 win for every game they "should win" and 0 for games they should lose. if you really want to do a sophisticated analysis, you should assign a probability between 0 and 1 for each game.
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