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Old 01-21-2006, 11:01 PM
Evan Evan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: startupping
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Default Re: Evaluating Managed Funds

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So far I believe we are still solidly outborrowing most large asian and european nations, if that's true the basis of the Buffett theory still holds.

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We borrow roughly 80% of the world's savings. We're outborrowing everyone.

This all leads back to a USD crisis. Nile Ferguson, quoting Kent Smetters, said that the PV of the US net debt (PV of all future revenues based on current tax policy - PV of future expenses based on Social Security, medicare and the fiscal deficit) is ~$40 Trillion. To put that number in perspective, if you bought every share of every stock traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX, it would cost you about $15 trillion. To put in in scarier perspective, that number represents about 4x US GDP. Let's say we wanted to take care of this problem immediately, that means that none of us would eat or consume in any way for the next four years.

That 20-35% allocation in foreign assets needs to be more on the order of 50-65% imo.

Edit to note that a likely "solution" is that people entering the work force today (i.e. me) will face likely twice the tax rates our parents did.
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