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Old 08-04-2006, 12:34 PM
jackaaron jackaaron is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: The \'Shoe
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Default Re: The Poker Tournament Formula by Arnold Snyder...

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The top players:
Went out early much less often than the average player. Early being defined as the first 10 percent of players.

They busted out more often than the average player in between the time considered "early" and the time where you would exploit the bubble.

They busted out more often than the average player at bubble time.

They busted out more often ITM but not final table than the average player.

They final tabled more often than the average player.

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Jack,

The top players not busting out early (in the first 10%) might be attributed to the top players avoiding big confrontations early without a big hand (ie not going to the felt with top pair) instead playing small ball and concentrating on getting a feel for the table. I also suspect there is a problem with your findings (possibly based on which players you chose to compare). The reason I say that is that you say the top players busted out more often than the "average player" in all points of the tournament except the first 10%. How can that possibly be? Am I missing something?

Al

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Yes. You are. Notice that I said that "Top Players: Final table more often than the average player."

There are five sections to the tournament analyzed.

Early.
Middle as you approach the bubble.
The bubble.
ITM not at FT.
FT.

The best players basically didn't bust out as often early compared to the average, and they final tabled MORE than the average players (which makes sense).

In the middle parts, however, they busted out more often than the average player. As I said earlier, I think this is attributed to them take more risks (except for early) than the average player to make it to the final table.

So, if we were going to award each section to one or the other it would look like this:
Early - Best players
Between early and bubble play - Average players
Bubble - Average players
ITM not FT - Average players
Final Table - Best players...

But, this is a little misleading if you think that because the average players lead in 3 of 5 categories that they are actually better. They're not. They are tightening up in these stages when they should be playing to get first place.

Thus, they are not getting as many final tables. I also think that they bust out early more often trying to go for chips when they're calling or going all in in the 10/20 blinds, and such, and they get those chips but don't do anything with them.
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